Consumption is recovering, but unevenly. What does this mean for the liquidity of trading companies?

Growth in retail sales may look like good news for trade. More traffic, larger shopping baskets, greater willingness among consumers to spend money. The problem is that consumption rarely recovers evenly across all categories. Some products start selling faster, others still remain on shelves, and part of the assortment requires earlier inventory purchases before the company sees any real cash inflow from sales.

This uneven picture is visible in the latest Statistics Poland data on retail sales in May 2026. According to the publication on retail sales in May 2026, retail sales at constant prices were 3.0% higher than a year earlier, but at the same time fell by 1.7% compared with April. This is an important signal for trading companies: the market may be growing year-on-year, while still not giving a simple, stable month-to-month picture of demand.

The data also shows differences between categories. Sales growth does not spread evenly across the whole retail sector, and some segments behave differently from retail sales overall. For business owners, this means that the statement “sales are growing” is too general. What matters is which categories are actually turning over, which ones are slowing down and where the company is committing cash to inventory.

For trading companies, the uneven return of consumption means that “the market is improving” is not enough to make a safe purchasing decision. The company needs to check what customers are actually buying, how quickly goods are turning over, how much cash remains in stock and whether it has enough funds to support sales without overloading cash flow.

The greatest risk appears when a company responds to improving sentiment with overly broad inventory purchases. Sales may be growing, but cash can remain tied up in goods that do not return to circulation as quickly as the business expected.

Why is uneven consumption difficult for trade?

Trading companies operate in a very specific rhythm: first they need to buy goods, then store them, sell them, deliver or hand them over to the customer, and only later recover cash. In retail, part of the money may return quickly. In B2B or wholesale trade, the inflow may only appear after the payment term.

When demand is stable, purchasing decisions are easier to plan. The company knows which categories turn over, what stock levels are safe and when it is worth ordering the next batch. When consumption recovers unevenly, purchasing decisions become much more difficult. One good month does not always mean a lasting trend. One strong category can hide the weakness of others. One larger delivery can improve product availability, but at the same time block cash for several weeks.

That is why, in trade, the key question is not only “are sales growing?”, but also “which products are actually turning back into cash?”.

Sales, inventory and cash do not always show the same thing

A trading company can have good sales and still experience tight liquidity. It may sound paradoxical, but in practice it happens very often.

Sales show that the company has customers. Inventory shows how many goods are waiting to be sold. Cash shows how much money has actually returned to the company and can be used for the next purchases, suppliers, salaries, taxes, logistics or marketing.

If the company looks only at sales, it may notice too late that part of the money has not yet returned to circulation. It is still in inventory, seasonal products, slow-moving goods or receivables from buyers.

That is why, in trade, margin and turnover are not enough to assess whether purchasing decisions are safe. The speed at which goods turn back into cash is just as important. This mechanism is closely connected with the broader difference between profit and cash in a company, but in trade it is especially visible in inventory.

Where does liquidity most often get blocked in a trading company?

Liquidity is most often blocked not by one spectacular mistake, but by a series of small purchasing decisions. The company orders more goods because sales have started to move slightly. It increases availability because competitors are doing the same. It buys a larger batch because the supplier offers a better price. It adds a new category because “it might sell”. Each of these decisions may make sense, but together they can create too much pressure on cash.

The first risk area is an overly broad assortment. The company has many products, but only some of them truly work for turnover. The rest take up space, require handling and block funds.

The second area is seasonal inventory. It needs to be planned in advance, but the timing, scale and structure of demand cannot always be predicted perfectly. If the season is weaker, shorter or delayed, goods remain in stock longer than expected.

The third area is promotions and discounts. They can help release cash, but if the company regularly has to reduce prices only to recover funds, the problem probably appeared earlier - in the purchasing decision, price, turnover or overly optimistic demand planning.

The fourth area is commercial terms. If the supplier expects fast payment, while the company sells with deferred payment terms or keeps goods in stock for a long time, the cash gap appears even before sales show the full result.

Why does “more goods” not always mean “more sales”?

In trade, it is easy to assume that greater availability will automatically increase sales. Sometimes it does. But not always. A larger warehouse can also mean more cash tied up in products that sell more slowly than expected.

This is especially important when consumption returns unevenly. Customers may return faster to purchases in selected categories, while still remaining cautious in others. A company that orders broadly may be right about part of its assortment, while at the same time tying up funds in products that do not have sufficient sales speed.

Before larger inventory purchases, it is worth separating products into three groups:

• products that turn over quickly and regularly return to cash,
• products that build the offer, but sell more slowly,
• risky, seasonal or test products that require more cautious purchasing decisions.

This distinction helps decide where to increase availability, where to maintain a more cautious stock level and where not to commit too much cash only because the market looks better.

What should be checked before larger inventory purchases?

Before making a larger purchase, a trading company should answer a few practical questions. This does not require a complex financial model. It requires a sober check of whether the purchasing decision will take away too much flexibility from the business.

The key questions are:

• does this product really turn over, or does it only look good in the sales forecast?
• how many days or weeks usually pass before the product turns back into cash?
• does the supplier require payment faster than the company recovers money from sales?
• does the company have the space, people and processes to handle larger stock?
• what happens if sales are 20-30% lower than planned?
• can the product be discounted without destroying the margin?
• will larger inventory purchases block the company from buying products that turn over faster?

Only the answers to these questions show whether a larger purchase supports sales or only increases the warehouse.

Example: larger inventory purchases before the season

A trading company is preparing for the season and decides to increase inventory in three categories. It spends PLN 95,000 on core products because they sell regularly and return to cash quickly. It allocates PLN 70,000 to seasonal products, expecting demand to increase in the coming weeks. It also buys a new test category for PLN 38,000 because the supplier offers a good price for a larger order.

In total, the company commits PLN 203,000. After a month, the core products sell according to plan, but the season starts more slowly, and the test category requires promotion. Sales reports look better than before, but pressure appears in the bank account because part of the cash returned quickly, while part of it is still in stock.

The problem is not that the company bought goods. The problem is that different product groups return to cash at different speeds. If the business owner looks only at total sales, they may not notice that part of the inventory is starting to finance itself too slowly. That is why, in trade, purchases should be planned not only by product category, but also by turnover speed and the risk of capital being tied up.

When does inventory start to limit the company?

Inventory is necessary because there is no sales without goods. The problem begins when the warehouse stops supporting turnover and starts blocking decisions.

This can be seen in several signals. The company has goods, but lacks funds for products that sell faster. It increasingly postpones payments to suppliers. It launches promotions not because it wants to increase sales, but because it needs to recover cash. It delays marketing, hiring or development of a sales channel because too much money is in stock.

In this situation, the problem is not only the size of inventory. It is also its structure. One warehouse may include goods that return to cash within several days and products that will require several months, discounts or additional sales campaigns.

That is why a trading company should regularly check not only “how much stock do we have?”, but also “which stock really finances further sales, and which stock is starting to limit them?”.

How should purchasing decisions be made when demand is uneven?

When demand is uneven, the company does not have to give up larger inventory purchases. But it should divide them differently. Fast-moving products may require greater availability, because lack of stock means lost sales. Seasonal products should have a separate risk limit, because their sales depend on a shorter time window. New or test products should be ordered more carefully, even if the supplier offers a better price for a larger batch.

In practice, it helps to think about inventory as a portfolio of decisions. Part of the warehouse is supposed to earn quickly. Part of it is there to build the offer. Part of it is a test. The problem begins when the company finances all these groups in the same way, without differentiating risk and cash return speed. This is where better financial visibility becomes useful. If the company sees invoices, costs, payment dates and obligations in one place, it is easier to assess whether it can afford a larger purchase. This direction is supported by CFO Suite, which helps organise invoices, costs and the current financial picture of the business.

When does sales growth require additional capital?

Sales growth may require additional capital when the company needs to buy goods earlier, increase stock, handle more orders, enter a new sales channel or prepare for the season. This does not always mean a problem. Sometimes it is the natural cost of growth. The company has demand, but needs funds to serve it. In that case, capital is not used to save weak sales, but to finance the moment between purchasing goods and receiving money from customers.

In many companies, working capital acts as growth infrastructure. Without it, the company may see a sales opportunity, but not have the funds to handle it safely.

When can financing help a trading company?

Financing can help when the company has healthy sales, understands product turnover and needs capital for a specific trading cycle. Examples include inventory purchases before the season, a larger order from a supplier, servicing a larger customer or preparing a new sales channel.

One condition is important: the company should know how the financing will be repaid. The repayment source may be sales of goods, customer inflows, execution of a larger order or other predictable cash flows.

If the company needs capital for a larger order or project, one possible direction may be contract financing. If it owns real estate and wants to unlock a larger amount without selling assets, it can also consider financing secured by real estate.

However, financing should not replace purchasing decisions. If the company regularly buys too much slow-moving stock, the problem is not only a lack of capital, but also the way assortment, margin and turnover are planned.

How does PaveNow look at liquidity in trading companies?

At PaveNow, we look at business financing through the lens of purpose, cash flows and the repayment source. In trading companies, what matters is not only whether sales are growing, but also how quickly goods return to cash and whether the company can safely serve higher demand.

If the gap appears before the customer’s payment arrives, financing should respond to a specific need: inventory purchases, maintaining product availability, serving a larger order or securing the sales season.

The most important point is that financing should have a clear purpose and a realistic repayment source. In trade, the question is not only whether customers are buying more, but whether the company has enough cash to buy the right goods, maintain turnover and avoid blocking everyday obligations.

Summary

The return of consumption can support trading companies, but if demand returns unevenly, purchasing decisions, stock turnover and cash control become more important. Higher sales do not always mean greater financial flexibility, especially when funds are tied up in goods, inventory or receivables.

A trading company should know which products really return to cash, which ones only build the breadth of the offer, and which ones are starting to block capital. Only then can it assess whether larger inventory purchases support growth or limit liquidity.

The key is not to make purchasing decisions based only on the general signal that consumption is growing. In trade, the structure of demand, turnover speed and the real cash cycle matter. They show whether the company can safely increase its scale.