Truck idle, contract at risk. How much does a driver shortage cost a transport company?

A truck can be roadworthy, insured, fuelled and ready to work, yet still fail to complete a single kilometre. It is enough for the company to have no driver with the required qualifications, or to be waiting for recruitment and the formalities involved in employing a non-EU national.

The vehicle generates no revenue, but some costs continue to weigh on the business. Leasing instalments, insurance, telematics, depot space, taxes, financing and administrative expenses do not disappear simply because the wheels are not turning. At the same time, the carrier may be unable to operate a scheduled route, accept another order or maintain the volume promised to a customer.

Transport and Logistics Poland, known as TLP, says the driver shortage is structural. Its effects include limited capacity to fulfil contracts, vehicle downtime, rising costs and a loss of competitiveness. Read the TLP position.

However, the problem is more complex than saying: "the truck is not moving, so the company loses all its planned revenue." When a vehicle is idle, some route-related costs, such as fuel and road tolls, are not incurred. The cost of a missing driver should therefore be calculated in at least two ways:

1. How much cash does the company continue to spend on the idle vehicle?
2. How much worse is the company's result compared with a scenario in which the truck operates profitable routes?

Lost revenue is not automatically a loss. First subtract the costs the company did not incur, then add the fixed expenses and costs caused by the vacancy itself.

Is the driver shortage temporary?

The shortage of professional drivers is not limited to one company, region or weak season. According to IRU's 2025 survey, around 502,000 truck driver positions were unfilled across the European markets included in the study. This represented approximately 13% of positions. The organisation also estimates that around 660,500 European drivers may retire by 2030. See IRU data on driver shortages.

These figures are not an estimate of the shortage in Poland alone. They do, however, show the European background against which Polish carriers compete for workers with companies from many countries.

In Poland, the industry points not only to the number of available candidates. Another problem is the time needed to legalise the employment of non-EU nationals, obtain the required documents, verify qualifications and prepare a driver to work for a specific company.

As a result, a vehicle may remain idle even though the carrier:

• has customers and transport enquiries
• owns an operational fleet
• has signed a contract or regularly receives orders
• has found a candidate but has not completed the formalities
• offers remuneration that fits its business model

The missing driver is then a constraint on operating capacity. The company owns the asset but does not have the complete set of resources required to generate revenue.

What really costs a company money when a truck is idle?

The most common mistake is to add up all planned revenue and call it a loss. If the truck did not begin the route, the company did not incur some expenses linked to mileage. It did not buy fuel for that journey, pay the related road tolls or wear out its tyres to the same extent.

This does not mean that downtime is free. The business continues to bear expenses that do not depend on vehicle utilisation. It also loses the contribution margin that a profitable route could have generated.

The key is to distinguish the cost that actually leaves the bank account from the result the company failed to generate. Both figures are necessary, but they answer different questions.

Driver pay does not always fall into the same category either. If a vacancy is unfilled, it may not arise at all. However, if downtime results from illness, leave, a notice period, training or an existing employee waiting for documents, some employment costs may remain. The model should reflect actual cash outflow instead of automatically treating the entire salary as either a fixed or variable cost.

Lost revenue, cash cost and lost contribution margin

An analysis of downtime should include three different figures.

1. Lost revenue

This is the value of routes the company did not complete. It shows the scale of unused sales capacity, but it does not equal the loss because some variable costs do not arise when the route is not operated.

2. Cash cost of downtime

These are the expenses the company must continue paying despite receiving no revenue from the vehicle, plus the additional costs caused by the vacancy.

Cash cost of downtime = fixed vehicle costs + recruitment and administrative costs + additional organisational costs

3. Deterioration in performance compared with the plan

This is the difference between the result the vehicle could have generated and the result achieved while it was idle.

A simple estimate is:

Deterioration in performance = lost contribution margin + additional costs caused by the vacancy

Contribution margin is revenue less the variable costs required to operate the route. It is intended to cover fixed costs and leave a result for the company.

If a vehicle was expected to generate PLN 48,000 in revenue, this does not mean that a month of downtime costs exactly PLN 48,000. If completing the routes would require PLN 31,000 in variable costs, the lost contribution margin is PLN 17,000. The fixed costs that still need to be paid should be shown separately.

How do you calculate the monthly cost of a missing driver?

Consider a simplified example of one truck that could generate PLN 48,000 in revenue in a normal month.

Assume that the costs dependent on completed routes would amount to PLN 31,000. These include fuel, road tolls and other expenses directly assigned to the journeys. Fixed costs allocated to the vehicle amount to PLN 9,000 per month.

In this example:

• lost revenue is PLN 48,000
• monthly cash outflow for the vehicle's fixed costs is PLN 9,000
• deterioration in performance compared with the plan is PLN 17,000

If the company spends an additional PLN 6,000 on recruitment, documents and onboarding for a new driver, this amount should not be added to lost revenue. It should be included in the actual cost of the vacancy and the deterioration in performance.

This calculation has another advantage. It may reveal that not every route should be protected at any cost. If the expected contribution margin is too small to cover fixed costs and risk, the driver shortage is not the only problem. The rate may also be unprofitable or the contract may be poorly structured.

What changes when downtime lasts 30, 60 or 90 days?

The cost of a vacancy grows over time, but not every item increases in the same way. Fixed vehicle costs and lost contribution margin recur every month. Some recruitment and administrative expenses may be one-off.

Assume that in our model:

• fixed vehicle costs amount to PLN 9,000 per month
• lost contribution margin amounts to PLN 17,000 per month
• the one-off cost of recruitment, documents and onboarding is PLN 6,000

The final column does not add fixed costs to lost contribution margin again. The same fixed costs appear in both the planned working scenario and the downtime scenario, so they cancel each other out when the two results are compared. They remain a real cash outflow, however. The deterioration in performance is the difference between the working and idle scenarios, plus the additional recruitment cost.

The cash required to survive the downtime is a separate figure. After 90 days, the company in this example needs PLN 27,000 for the vehicle's fixed costs and PLN 6,000 for recruitment and onboarding. This amounts to PLN 33,000 in actual expenses before the costs of the wider organisation are included.

How does a missing driver affect contracts and liquidity?

A single vacancy may look like an HR problem. In a transport company, however, it can quickly become an operational and financial problem.

If the company is committed to delivering a specific volume, one missing driver may make it necessary to:

• assign some routes to a subcontractor
• pay a rate higher than the cost of using its own fleet
• move a driver from another route
• reduce orders accepted from another customer
• negotiate deadlines or volume
• bear costs resulting from non-performance of the contract

This can trigger a domino effect. The company continues to pay for the idle vehicle while purchasing more expensive replacement transport. At the same time, it may be waiting 30, 45 or 60 days for payment for journeys already completed.

That is why three different problems need to be separated:

• staffing problem - the company has no person who can legally and safely complete the transport
• profitability problem - the route rate does not cover the full costs and risk
• liquidity problem - the route is profitable, but costs arise before the customer pays

Financing can sometimes help in the third case. It will not hire a driver, speed up an administrative decision or turn an unprofitable rate into a viable contract.

We explain the difference between the result and the money available at a given time in our article on cash flow vs profit.

Employing a non-EU driver - why does the process take time?

Employing a driver from outside the European Union does not end with signing an agreement and handing over the keys. The company must verify the person's right to work legally, qualifications, the documents required to practise the profession and the conditions applicable to the type of transport involved.

In international road freight transport, a driver who is neither a national of an EU Member State nor a long-term resident must hold a driver attestation. The application is submitted by the undertaking that holds a Community licence. This is explained by Poland's Chief Inspectorate of Road Transport.

Depending on the situation, the process may include:

• confirming the right to reside and work
• verifying the driving licence and professional qualifications
• medical and psychological examinations
• obtaining a driver attestation
• translating documents
• preparing the agreement and employment documentation
• training in company procedures, routes, vehicles and systems
• arranging travel, accommodation or equipment

Not every item will apply in every case. The carrier should establish the requirements for the specific driver, nationality, documents, type of transport and form of employment.

The process therefore costs more than official fees alone. The working time of the HR team, recruiter, dispatcher and employee responsible for onboarding also matters.

Are the proposed legal changes already in force?

No. In August 2026, TLP submitted comments on draft law UD396 and proposed two possible solutions: mandatory creation of a shortage occupations list or a separate list for occupations performed in cross-border services.

Draft law UD396 itself is still within the government legislative process. The Council of Ministers' work programme listed the third quarter of 2026 as the planned date for its adoption. Check the current UD396 project page.

What should you calculate before accepting a contract without a complete driver roster?

A contract does not increase actual transport capacity. Before the company commits to additional volume, it should verify that it has the drivers, vehicles and buffer required to cover unexpected absences.

The most important questions are:

1. How many drivers will actually be available on the start date?
2. Which vehicles can operate without moving drivers away from other contracts?
3. How long will it take to onboard the selected candidate?
4. Does the start date depend on a document or decision the company has not yet received?
5. How much does a route cost when operated by the company's own fleet and by a subcontractor?
6. What margin does the contract leave after replacements and staffing risk are included?
7. When must the company pay for fuel, tolls, wages and subcontractors?
8. When can the company issue an invoice and when is payment realistically expected?
9. What will happen to the result if one vehicle is unavailable for 30 days?
10. Does the rest of the business have a sufficient cash buffer?

We examine this analysis in more detail in our article can your company afford a larger contract?.

When can financing help?

Financing may be justified when the problem is the timing between an expense and a predictable inflow, rather than a lasting inability to provide transport services.

The driver is ready, but the contract requires working capital

The company has the driver roster, a confirmed contract and a calculated margin, but it must finance fuel, tolls, wages and other delivery costs before the first payment arrives. In this case, proceeds arising from the contract may provide the source of repayment.

The invoice has been issued, but the customer will pay later

The transport service has been completed and the receivable is undisputed, but the payment term is 30, 45, 60 days or more. Invoice financing can shorten the wait for cash. PaveNow finances single invoices and entire B2B contracts. More information is available on the factoring and contract financing page.

Recruitment unlocks existing, profitable capacity

The company has a vehicle, a credible order book and a candidate whose onboarding requires a specific expense. Financing may be considered if the conservative margin on future routes covers the cost of capital and the driver's start date does not depend solely on an unpredictable decision.

In each of these cases, the company should calculate not only the planned scenario but also a delayed start, lower volume and later customer payment.

When will financing merely postpone the problem?

New funds do not solve a situation in which the company has no candidate for months, the vehicle has no confirmed orders or the available rates do not cover its costs.

Particular caution is required when:

• the money is intended to cover lease payments on an idle fleet indefinitely
• the company does not know the likely date when the vehicle can start operating
• there is no confirmed driver or contract
• repayment depends on perfect fleet utilisation from day one
• the rate per kilometre does not cover variable costs, fixed costs and the cost of capital
• several vehicles remain underused for consecutive months
• the company repays earlier liabilities with new financing without changing its operating model

How can a company reduce the financial impact of driver shortages?

Not every staffing gap can be closed quickly, but its impact on performance and cash can be reduced in advance.

Calculate profitability by vehicle and route

The average result for the entire company may conceal vehicles, routes and customers with very different levels of profitability. For each material route, the company should know the revenue, variable cost, contribution margin, fixed costs and payment term.

Monitor fleet idle days

Fleet utilisation alone is not enough. The company needs to know why a truck is idle: driver shortage, servicing, lack of orders, missing documents or an insufficient rate. Each cause requires a different response.

Set decision thresholds for 30, 60 and 90 days

The business owner should decide in advance when to reassess whether maintaining the vehicle still makes sense. Possible actions include changing its use, subleasing, working with a subcontractor, moving a driver, selling the asset or renegotiating financing. Each solution requires a separate review of contracts, costs and tax consequences.

Do not promise the customer a full fleet based on planned recruitment

A candidate is not yet transport capacity. Until the required documents, qualifications and confirmed start date are in place, the company should allow for the risk of delay.

Build a buffer for fixed costs

The buffer should reflect not only the average invoice payment term but also potential vehicle downtime. The higher the proportion of leasing and other fixed expenses, the faster a driver shortage can become a liquidity problem.

Summary

A missing driver costs a transport company more than recruitment alone, but less than the full revenue lost on routes that were not completed. A reliable calculation should separate:

• fixed costs that remain despite downtime
• variable costs the company does not incur
• contribution margin lost because routes were not operated
• recruitment, documentation and onboarding expenses
• additional costs of replacements, reorganisation and customer relationships

In the illustrative model, a truck generating PLN 48,000 in monthly revenue does not automatically produce a PLN 48,000 loss when it is idle. After subtracting PLN 31,000 in variable costs, the deterioration in performance amounts to PLN 17,000 per month, while actual cash outflow for the vehicle's fixed costs is PLN 9,000. Additional recruitment expenses should be calculated separately.

Financing can help when the driver and a profitable contract are confirmed and the problem is the time between an expense and an inflow. It cannot replace an employee, automatically speed up an administrative procedure or repair routes operated below cost.