Black Friday and Christmas - how to finance inventory without losing liquidity

Black Friday and Christmas shopping can give a retail business some of its strongest weeks of the year. To make use of this period, a shop often needs to purchase more inventory in advance, increase its advertising budget, prepare its warehouse and hire additional staff. Money leaves the business in September, October or early November, while it returns gradually through sales and settlements from payment providers or marketplaces.

Inventory financing can help a business use this opportunity if it can estimate demand, preserve its margin after discounts and identify a realistic repayment source. It should not be based solely on the assumption that everything will sell during Black Friday.

Before making a decision, the business needs to calculate two results. The first shows whether the season will remain profitable after all costs are included. The second answers whether sales cash will return early enough for the business to repay the financing and continue meeting its day-to-day obligations.

Note: this material is educational and does not constitute financial, legal or tax advice. The sample calculations are simplified and exclude VAT and income tax. Each business should prepare calculations based on its own costs, sales terms and settlement schedule.

Is it worth financing inventory for Black Friday and Christmas?

It can be, provided that the additional stock responds to demand that can be supported with evidence and the sales margin covers discounts, marketing, logistics, returns and the cost of capital. The financing term should match the point at which cash is expected to return to the business.

It may make sense when:

the business has data from previous seasons or other reliable sources
it knows which products sell quickly and which remain in storage
additional sales remain profitable after promotional discounts
the amount reflects a specific cash gap rather than the maximum loan available
the repayment schedule accounts for platform settlements, returns and costs falling due in January
the business has a plan for slow-moving or unsold inventory

Financing becomes much riskier when the business purchases stock mainly because a supplier is offering a volume discount and the sales forecast relies on the general belief that the end of the year is always strong.

An inventory loan does not create margin. It only gives the business access to capital earlier, so its cost and repayment date need to be included in the seasonal plan before the goods are ordered.

Year-end sales grow, but so does pressure on margins

Data from the previous season shows that November and December genuinely increase the scale of online retail activity. It does not mean that every additional transaction delivers the same margin.

According to Base Index, the combined sales of the analysed online shops in November 2025 were 11.3% higher than a year earlier. Order volume increased by 3.7% and average order value by 7.3%. Compared with October, however, the number of orders increased by 1.6%, while average order value fell by 1.6% to PLN 204.10. Base links this change to strong promotional activity during Black Weeks. Base Index data for November 2025

In December, sales value was 10.2% higher than a year earlier and order volume increased by 6.4%. Compared with November, the number of transactions rose by as much as 7.4%, but average order value fell by 6.9% to PLN 189.90. More orders place greater pressure on warehouse operations, customer service and logistics even when the value of each basket is lower. Base Index data for December 2025

The Polish Bank Association also reported that before Christmas 2025 consumers planned to spend an average of PLN 1,787 per person, 13% more than a year earlier. Planned gift spending averaged PLN 677. These figures confirm the size of the seasonal opportunity, but they do not determine which shops and product categories will be able to capture it. Polish Christmas Spending 2025 report

Metric	November 2025	December 2025	What it means for a business
Sales value year on year	+11.3%	+10.2%	The market creates room for growth, but the result of a specific shop depends on its category, offer and competitors.
Order volume year on year	+3.7%	+6.4%	Higher volume increases the need for warehousing, packing, deliveries and customer service.
Change in average order value month on month	-1.6%	-6.9%	More transactions do not necessarily produce proportionally more margin or cash.
Average order value	PLN 204.10	PLN 189.90	When baskets are smaller, the cost of handling each order has a greater effect on profitability.

The conclusion is more nuanced than saying that customers buy more at the end of the year. A business may process more orders while also incurring higher costs and earning a lower margin per transaction.

When does money leave the business and when does it return?

The seasonal liquidity challenge starts well before Black Friday. A supplier may require a deposit or payment before dispatch. Goods need to be imported or transported, received into the warehouse, labelled and prepared for sale. At the same time, spending on campaigns, creative assets, packaging and staff begins to rise.

A customer may pay immediately, but not every payment reaches the business bank account straight away. A marketplace or payment provider may release funds according to its own settlement schedule. Some orders will be returned, with the handling cost falling in December or January. Taxes, supplier invoices and regular operating expenses continue to fall due as well.

Period	Typical activities	Cash flow effect
August and September	Demand forecasting, product selection, supplier negotiations, budget planning and choosing a financing source.	Deposits, delivery reservations and the first preparation costs may already arise.
September and October	Purchasing and transporting stock, preparing the warehouse and producing campaign materials.	The largest outflows may occur before intensive selling begins.
November	Black Weeks, larger advertising budgets, discounts and handling a higher number of orders.	Cash begins to return, but spending on advertising, payment processing and logistics also increases.
December	Gift shopping, express delivery, more customer service and last-minute orders.	Inflows grow, together with operational pressure and the risk of mistakes.
January	Returns, complaints, clearance of remaining stock, tax settlements and payments for services.	Some earlier inflows may be reversed, while unsold inventory continues to tie up capital.

Seasonal financing should therefore match the entire cycle, not only the date of Black Friday. A repayment due immediately after the sales peak may be too early if the business is still waiting for settlements or processing returns.

What does preparing for the season really cost?

Inventory is usually the largest expense, but it is not the only one. The business should include every cost that arises because it has decided to increase its sales capacity.

Purchasing and delivering goods

The purchase price may be accompanied by transport, customs duties, insurance, currency conversion, quality control and receiving costs. For imports, possible delivery delays and currency risk also matter.

Marketing and promotions

Larger inventory will not generate sales by itself. The budget should include paid campaigns, creative production, discounts, partner activity and possible marketplace commissions. Customer acquisition costs may differ during periods of greater competition, so it is risky to copy a June or July budget without preparing another scenario.

Warehousing, packing and staff

More orders mean more parcels, packaging materials, labels and working hours. The business may need additional shifts, temporary staff, more warehouse space or support from an external fulfilment operator.

Payments and sales platforms

Marketplace, payment provider and intermediary fees are often calculated as a share of sales value. They therefore increase with turnover. The business needs to check not only their level, but also when funds will be settled.

Returns and complaints

A return does not always mean only refunding the product price. The business may also bear the cost of delivery, handling, inspection and putting the item back on sale. Some returned products may need to be discounted or may no longer qualify for sale as full-value goods.

Cost of financing

The total financing cost should be added to the budget before the decision is made. The business needs to know how much it will pay in currency, when instalments fall due and whether early repayment is possible. The interest rate alone does not show every outflow if the offer includes additional fees or commissions.

Budget item	What should be calculated?	Common omission
Goods	Purchase price, transport, customs duties, insurance and receiving costs.	Counting only the amount on the supplier invoice.
Promotion	Discounts, advertising, creative work, affiliate fees and sales commissions.	Comparing promotional revenue with the margin available at the regular price.
Operations	Warehousing, packing, additional staff, customer service and deliveries.	Failing to value the additional orders and working hours.
Returns	Delivery, handling, loss of value and repeated storage.	Assuming every returned item can immediately be sold again at the same price.
Capital	Interest, commissions, fees, instalments and the first repayment date.	Checking the cost without comparing it with incremental margin and the inflow calendar.

How do you calculate the financing required for inventory?

A business does not always need to finance the entire season with a loan. Some costs may be covered with its own cash, supplier credit or inflows arriving before the relevant payment deadline.

A simplified formula is:

Financing required = inventory purchase + marketing + additional operating costs + buffer - cash allocated to the season - supplier credit - inflows available before payment is due

Suppose an online shop plans:

additional inventory purchases of PLN 240,000
marketing expenditure of PLN 28,000
additional logistics and customer service costs of PLN 18,000
a PLN 20,000 buffer for returns and unexpected costs

The total requirement is PLN 306,000. The business can allocate PLN 70,000 of its own cash, while the supplier agrees to defer payment of PLN 40,000. The estimated gap is therefore PLN 196,000.

This does not automatically mean that the business should borrow exactly PLN 196,000. It needs to check the weekly outflow schedule. If some revenue returns before later payments are due, the maximum gap may be smaller. If deliveries and payments accumulate in one week, it may be larger.

A cash flow forecast covering at least the period from the first supplier deposit to the end of the main returns wave can make this visible. We explain the difference between profitability and cash in more detail in our article on cash flow vs profit.

Pre-promotion margin does not show the Black Friday result

A product may have an attractive margin at its regular price and still become unprofitable once discounts, advertising and fulfilment costs are combined.

The simplified result for the season can be calculated as follows:

Season result = revenue after discounts - cost of goods sold - marketing - platform and payment fees - additional logistics - return costs - storage - financing cost

Cash flow up to the repayment date needs to be calculated separately:

Cash available for repayment = settlements received by the repayment date - all expenses paid by that date - the business's minimum operating buffer

The first result shows whether the decision may be profitable. The second shows whether the business will have money at the required time. Profitable inventory may still be sitting in the warehouse when an instalment falls due.

Example: additional inventory costing PLN 240,000

An online shop plans to increase inventory for Black Friday and Christmas. All figures in the example are net amounts.

Assumptions:

additional inventory purchase: PLN 240,000
potential revenue at regular prices if all stock is sold: PLN 400,000
average discount: 12%
marketing budget: PLN 28,000
additional logistics and customer service: PLN 18,000
expected cost of processing returns and loss of value: PLN 12,000
platform and payment fees: 5% of achieved revenue
illustrative total financing cost: PLN 10,000
the repayment date falls before any remaining post-season stock is sold

If all inventory is sold after applying the average discount, revenue will be PLN 352,000. After the listed expenses are deducted, PLN 26,400 remains. If only 85% of stock is sold before repayment is due, the simplified cash flow shows a shortfall of PLN 23,760.

Inventory sold by the repayment date	Revenue after discount	Expenses paid by the repayment date	Cash flow	Remaining stock at purchase cost
100%	PLN 352,000	PLN 325,600	+PLN 26,400	PLN 0
85%	PLN 299,200	PLN 322,960	-PLN 23,760	PLN 36,000
70%	PLN 246,400	PLN 320,320	-PLN 73,920	PLN 72,000

In the 85% scenario, the shop still holds goods purchased for PLN 36,000. This does not automatically mean a loss of that amount. The problem is that the inventory has not yet turned into cash, while the financing still needs to be repaid according to schedule.

The example also shows how little room a promotion may leave. Even with full sell-through, the result is PLN 26,400, although the initial difference between regular-price stock value and purchase cost was PLN 160,000. Discounts and the cost of delivering the season absorb most of that space.

Build three scenarios instead of one forecast

A seasonal plan should not rely on one number. At minimum, it is worth preparing a base, cautious and difficult scenario.

Assumption	Base scenario	Cautious scenario	Difficult scenario
Inventory sold	In line with the plan.	15% below the plan.	30% below the plan.
Average discount	In line with the campaign.	5 percentage points higher.	10 percentage points higher.
Advertising cost	In line with the budget.	Higher customer acquisition cost.	The campaign does not generate the forecast sales.
Returns	In line with the business average.	25% above the average.	50% above the average.
Settlement date	In line with the schedule.	Some settlements are delayed by one week.	Delays and returns occur before repayment is due.
Ability to service financing	Covered by seasonal sales.	Requires part of the cash buffer.	Threatens the business's operating payments.

If the cautious scenario immediately removes the business's ability to repay, the plan is too tight. The business can reduce the order, split deliveries, limit the number of products being tested, negotiate with the supplier or increase its own buffer.

How do you decide which products are worth financing?

Not every product should be treated in the same way. The budget can be divided according to sales history and risk.

Core products

These generate stable sales outside the peak season as well. If they remain in the warehouse in January, they can continue to sell without a deep discount. They usually form the safer part of seasonal inventory.

Seasonal products

Their sales potential is closely connected with Black Friday, gift shopping or a specific date. Demand may fall rapidly after the season, so they need a conservative forecast and an exit plan.

New products being tested

The absence of sales history increases risk. A favourable supplier price is not evidence of customer demand. A large order in a new category financed with external capital can combine two risks: the product may fail and repayment remains due regardless of its inventory turnover.

Product type	What should be checked?	Inventory approach
Bestseller	Sales from previous seasons, availability and lost orders.	More stock may be justified if margin and inventory turnover are stable.
Year-round product	Post-December sales rate and storage cost.	Unsold stock may continue to move later without a deep discount.
Seasonal product	The date when it loses appeal, clearance price and the option to return it to the supplier.	The order should allow for a wider margin of error.
New category	Test sales, conversion rate, advertising cost and customer response.	A smaller test batch is safer than full inventory based on assumptions.

We explain the underlying mechanism more broadly in our article on how inventory turnover affects liquidity in retail businesses. A seasonal calculation must also include discount pressure, the cost of higher order volume and a specific capital repayment date.

Black Friday preparation also means compliant promotion practices

Planning a promotion does not end with choosing the discount percentage. A shop should verify how prices are displayed, product availability, delivery terms and the messages used in the campaign.

Poland's Office of Competition and Consumer Protection, UOKiK, reminds retailers that when announcing a reduction they need to show the lowest price applied during the 30 days before the discount. The information should be clear wherever the customer sees a reduction claim. UOKiK guidance for Black Friday

In April 2026, the President of UOKiK brought charges against three retail chains concerning incorrect information about the lowest price in the 30 days before a reduction. A violation of consumers' collective interests may result in a fine of up to 10% of turnover. UOKiK announcement from April 2026

Legal and operational risk should be part of the seasonal plan. Financing additional inventory will not help if the shop cannot launch the promotion correctly, promises an unrealistic delivery date or lacks a process for handling more returns.

Which type of financing may suit seasonal inventory?

The choice depends on the purpose, the size of the gap and the repayment source. Not every solution fits Black Friday purchasing.

Situation	Option to consider	What should be checked?
Purchasing goods, marketing and increasing B2C sales capacity	Business loan or working capital financing	Total cost, term, instalments and whether the schedule matches the return of cash.
The supplier offers deferred payment	Supplier credit	Goods price, payment date, limit and consequences of delay.
The business sells B2B and has issued an invoice	Factoring or invoice financing	Payment date, assignment rules, cost and responsibility if the customer does not pay.
The business has a signed B2B contract but needs to purchase goods first	Contract financing	The agreement, margin, delivery schedule, acceptance process and repayment source.
A larger amount is needed for a broader investment and the business owns property	Property-secured financing	Whether the security is proportionate, LTV, cost, term and mortgage risk.

For typical online shop inventory, a business Growth Loan or other working capital financing is the natural starting point. Factoring does not finance future consumer sales. It may become relevant when the business already holds a B2B receivable that meets the financing criteria.

The PaveNow Growth Loan may be used for inventory, marketing, equipment and other growth-related business expenses. Eligibility, amount and terms depend on an assessment of the business. Explore the PaveNow Growth Loan

Does faster financing justify a higher cost?

Fast access to capital has economic value only when it allows the business to use a specific, time-limited opportunity. This may be an order deadline, available stock, a favourable supplier price or the ability to launch a campaign before competitors.

The business should compare:

the total cost of financing
the incremental margin that the capital may generate
the value of sales lost if goods are unavailable
the risk that purchased stock does not sell as planned
the cost and timing of available alternatives

If the business can obtain cheaper bank financing early enough, the fact that a non-bank solution is faster does not make it automatically better. If the purchasing decision has a deadline and the business would lose measurable margin without capital, time can become one part of the economic assessment.

We discuss this decision in more detail in our guide to when non-bank business financing makes sense.

When should a business avoid financing more inventory?

External capital will not repair a weak forecast or an unprofitable promotion. The business should reduce its plan or avoid financing when:

it has no data supporting the expected demand
seasonal sales are expected to cover earlier losses unrelated to the season
margin after discounts does not cover customer acquisition and order handling costs
repayment depends on selling all inventory without delays or returns
most of the purchase is a new and untested category
unsold goods lose value quickly
the business does not preserve cash for taxes, payroll and essential expenses
further financing would be needed after the season solely to repay the first facility

Financing should close a temporary gap between an expense and an inflow that can be reasonably estimated. It should not replace profitability, inventory control or a sales plan.

Checklist before purchasing goods for Black Friday and Christmas

Before placing a large order, it is worth answering these questions:

Which products generated sales and margin in the previous season?
What percentage of inventory did the business actually sell before the end of December?
How will the planned discount change margin?
What does it cost to acquire and handle one additional order?
When will payment providers and marketplaces release the funds?
What part of sales may be reversed by the returns wave?
How much inventory remains if sales are 15% and 30% below plan?
What price can be obtained for remaining stock in January?
What is the largest weekly cash gap?
Can the business still pay instalments, payroll, taxes and suppliers in the cautious scenario?
Do the financing term and structure match the inflow calendar?
Which specific source will repay the capital?

When the answers can be expressed in numbers, the business can compare financing cost with the realistic value of the opportunity. When most answers rely on hope, it is safer to reduce inventory or test demand first.

Seasonal financing should support sales without requiring a perfect result

Black Friday and Christmas may justify higher inventory because the market does generate more orders during this period. Market data does not, however, guarantee the result of an individual business. Performance depends on product selection, pricing, promotion, logistics, customer acquisition cost and the time required for cash to return.

A sound decision starts with inventory that matches demand, not the maximum loan amount available. Financing can help a business purchase the right goods early enough and protect liquidity until they are sold. The plan still needs room for weaker demand, deeper discounts, delayed settlements and post-season returns.

Do your figures support seasonal demand, but you need capital for inventory, marketing or logistics?

Calculate the full cash gap, prepare a cautious scenario and explore financing matched to the purpose and expected return of cash from sales.

Explore the PaveNow Growth Loan

FAQ - financing inventory for Black Friday and Christmas

What is inventory financing?

It is capital used to purchase goods that a business plans to sell later. It may also cover related expenses such as transport, marketing, storage or additional customer service. The financing should match the specific gap between paying for goods and receiving cash from their sale.

Can a business loan be used to buy stock before Black Friday?

This may be one purpose of a business loan if the product terms allow funds to be used for inventory or working capital. The financing provider will assess the business, amount, purpose and repayment source. Before borrowing, the business should check the total cost and whether repayments match sales inflows.

How do you calculate the amount needed for inventory?

Add the cost of purchasing and delivering goods, marketing, additional logistics, customer service and a buffer. Then subtract cash allocated to the season, deferred supplier payments and inflows available before payment is due. The key figure is the maximum gap in the weekly cash flow forecast, not the sum of all costs without reference to timing.

How do you check whether additional inventory will be profitable?

Subtract the cost of goods sold, advertising, commissions, payment fees, logistics, returns, storage and financing from planned revenue after discounts. Repeat the calculation for weaker sales and a higher return rate. A positive base result is not enough if a small deviation removes the business's ability to repay.

Why can higher sales weaken an online shop's liquidity?

The business pays for goods, advertising and operational preparation first. Cash returns later, while some money may remain tied up in unsold inventory or wait for settlement by a payment provider. The larger the scale, the more capital is needed before cash is recovered.

Can factoring finance inventory for an online shop?

Factoring applies to existing receivables, usually arising from B2B invoices. It does not finance future consumer purchases. It may, however, release cash from invoices that have already been issued, which the business can then use in accordance with the product terms.

What can a business do with unsold stock after Christmas?

The plan should be prepared before the goods are ordered. Options may include continued sales at the regular price, a controlled clearance, product bundles, alternative channels, B2B sales, a supplier return or reducing subsequent orders. The expected price, sales period and storage cost of the remaining inventory should be estimated in advance.

How should returns be included in a seasonal forecast?

Use the business's historical return rate for the relevant category and sales channel. Include not only the customer refund, but also shipping, handling, product inspection, possible loss of value and the delay before another sale. It is also worth preparing a scenario in which returns are higher than average.

When is seasonal financing too risky?

Risk is high when the business has no demand data, the product loses value quickly, margin depends on selling without a discount or repayment requires all goods to be sold before a specific date. Another warning sign is failing to preserve a buffer for taxes, payroll and essential operating costs.

Is fast non-bank financing always the best solution?

No. Speed has value when the business faces a specific deadline and can calculate the margin it would lose without capital. If it has time and access to a cheaper option, it should compare the alternatives. The choice should reflect total cost, term, flexibility and whether repayments match actual inflows.

Urszula Zgiep-Leśniewska

Digital marketing specialist with B2B experience. She combines creativity, an analytical approach and knowledge of online campaigns to create activities that support brand visibility and customer acquisition.