[#4] Debt crisis map of Poland: which industries and regions are at the highest risk

Debt to ZUS and tax offices is not spread evenly across the economy. There are sectors that sit right in the epicenter of the crisis. If you run a transport, construction or trade company, the statistics are not on your side. The map of Poland also shows clear "red zones" where the risk of working with an insolvent counterparty is the highest. Below is a ranking of the most exposed areas of the economy.

When we look at the headline figure of PLN 21 billion of outstanding ZUS contributions, we only see the tip of the iceberg. The real picture emerges only when we go deeper to the level of specific industries and regions.

For a bank, your company is essentially a PKD code and a postal code. It is worth knowing what those codes say about your business risk in 2026.

The "Big Four" of debt - industries on the front line

Analysis of data from economic information bureaus (BIG InfoMonitor, KRD) is unforgiving. The same sectors have been occupying the top spots in debt rankings for a long time. This is where cost pressure and payment gridlocks hit the hardest.

Trade: the leader in absolute numbers

With arrears approaching PLN 9.2 billion, trade (wholesale and retail) is the most indebted sector in Poland.

• Why? Fierce competition from discounters and large chains, low margins, weakened consumer demand. For a small shop or wholesaler, one weak quarter can be enough to lose liquidity.

Industry: victims of energy prices

With debt of around PLN 7.4 billion, industry ranks second.

• Why? This is the effect of the "cost trap" described in the previous article. Energy intensive sectors are still recovering from spikes in electricity and gas prices, while wage pressure in factories further drains budgets.

Construction: the kingdom of payment gridlocks

Liabilities exceeding PLN 5.8 billion. But the structure is key here: around 73 percent of insolvent entities in this sector are sole proprietorships.

• Why? Construction is an industry where you wait the longest for your money. Long payment terms and invoice withholding by general contractors mean that subcontractors end up financing projects out of their own pockets - often at the expense of ZUS.

Transport (TSL): the highest bankruptcy risk

Although the total amount of debt here is lower (around PLN 3.3 billion), transport is the sector with the highest share of companies in trouble. Roughly every tenth transport company is struggling.

• Why? It is the "canary in the coal mine" of the Polish economy. The sector is being squeezed by high fuel costs, road tolls (maut), the mobility package, and recently a strong zloty, which makes international routes to the West barely profitable.

Geography of debt - where in Poland is it hardest to find a reliable payer?

Risk also has an address. When we analyze the map of Poland, three voivodeships stand out as debt hotspots.

Mazowieckie voivodeship (PLN 2.3 billion of debt)

This is the center of Polish business, so the high total amount is no surprise. But Mazowieckie also has the highest average debt per company (over PLN 43,000). This is where the biggest players go under, dragging smaller suppliers down with them.

Śląskie voivodeship (PLN 1.2 billion)

The situation here is specific. Śląsk has a very high share of indebted companies (over 10 percent). Statistically, the risk of ending up with an unreliable partner is particularly high. Problems in heavy industry spill over into local service companies.

Wielkopolskie voivodeship (around PLN 1 billion)

A region traditionally associated with prudence and solid management, but strongly dependent on trade and exports to Germany. The slowdown at our western neighbor hits family businesses in Wielkopolska indirectly but painfully.

What does this mean for your company?

If you operate in a "red zone" (for example transport in Śląsk or trade in Mazowsze), you need to assume that liquidity risk is your constant companion.

This is not a reason to panic, but a reason to change strategy:

• Verify counterparties: Before you start working together, check the client's payment credibility.
  
  
• Diversify: Do not become dependent on one major buyer, especially if they operate in a high risk sector.
  
  
• Protect liquidity: In seasonal industries and sectors sensitive to the economic cycle, a small cash buffer is not enough. You need access to external capital that you can trigger the moment a gridlock appears.
  
  

Your industry is under pressure. You do not have to be.

The fact that your sector's statistics look bad does not mean your company is doomed. Awareness of the risks is what allows you to defend against them.

Many of our clients in transport and construction are growing dynamically despite a difficult environment. How do they do it? They stopped financing their customers with their own money (and with ZUS money) and started using smart external financing.
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